Provisional Research Question: What drives displacement & return dynamics for precariously displaced populations following domestic regime change in internal conflict contexts?

Abstract

Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the country’s already complex patterns of displacement & return have taken on a new dimension, with a redoubling of return from the neighbouring states of Iran and Pakistan. Myanmar’s 2021 military coup d'état has seen massive internal displacement connected with the intensification of ethnic armed conflict across the country. In Syria, the fall of the Assad regime in 2024 has not yet seen significant return of the millions of displaced Syrians from neighbouring countries, including Türkiye. In all three cases, displaced persons find themselves in positions of legal and structural precariousness, despite any nominal recognition of international protected status.  These are three cases of regime change in conflict contexts, with three different displacement & return consequences. This project seeks to understand why this is the case.

Focusing on the precariously displaced – those who either fall outside international protection frameworks or who remain vulnerable to the discretionary power of host-states despite any protected status - the project examines the three-way relationship between displacement & return dynamics, internal conflict and domestic regime change. It seeks to develop a mid-level theory that explains the mechanics of this relationship, and show why displacement & return dynamics can vary across different situations of regime change in conflict contexts. The project examines legal, structural and intersectional factors that neighbouring host states use to induce the return of displaced persons, as well as investigating how conflict and regime change impact the use of these factors. The project remains grounded in geopolitical reality by examining the impact of neighbourhood and regional factors on the dynamics. Using displaced Afghans in Iran and Pakistan, Syrians in Türkiye and IDPs in Myanmar as case studies to develop its mid-level theory, the project's findings are designed to be practically relevant and immediately applicable to similar contexts of displacement at moments of regime change.

About the speaker

Chris' academic and professional background is reflected in his research interests. He holds a Master’s degree in Migration Studies from Oxford University (UK) and Bachelor’s degrees in Law and International Relations from Victoria University of Wellington (NZ). Professionally, he comes with extensive field experience, having worked for the International Organization for Migration (IOM) for more than a decade immediately prior to beginning his doctoral studies at ANU. While with IOM, Chris worked across Afghanistan, Myanmar, the Syria response, Bangladesh and the Asia-Pacific Regional Office. Originally from New Zealand, Chris lives with his partner in Queensland and travels to Canberra regularly.

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