Why do some autocracies successfully generate popular support while others fail? Previous research on performance legitimacy suggests that autocratic elites appeal to positive economic outcomes to justify their authority. Often, however, these claims lack credibility, raising commitment problems. I analyse how autocratic elites credibly commit to performance legitimation. Using a formal model, I show that elites signal their commitment to economic performance by investing in large infrastructure projects and the public responds by providing support in the form of political trust. I evaluate this argument using data on >80,000 electric power plants and >300,000 survey responses. I find that power plants are significantly larger in autocracies where performance legitimation is more common and that average plant capacity moderates the negative association between performance legitimation and trust in government. Finally, I present qualitative evidence from a process-tracing analysis of the Bratsk Hydroelectric Power Station.

About the speaker

Bill Kakenmaster is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the School of Regulation and Global Governance at the Australian National University. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Notre Dame in 2025 and was a PhD Fellow at the Kellogg Institute for International Studies. His research has been published in Climate Policy, Global Environmental Politics, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Nature Climate Change, and Perspectives in Politics. 

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